Currencies
Investor risk appetite has recovered after news of delayed tariff implementation on Mexico and Canada. China retaliated but the scope was limited. US job openings fell to a three-month low in December
5th Feb 25, 7:55am
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Investor risk appetite has recovered after news of delayed tariff implementation on Mexico and Canada. China retaliated but the scope was limited. US job openings fell to a three-month low in December
Large fallout from Trump tariffs pared back after delay for Mexico announced. Less reaction in the rates market due to offsetting forces; UST curves show mild flattening. NZ rates show notable fall
4th Feb 25, 7:44am
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Large fallout from Trump tariffs pared back after delay for Mexico announced. Less reaction in the rates market due to offsetting forces; UST curves show mild flattening. NZ rates show notable fall
Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
3rd Feb 25, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says the tariffs failed to achieve the objective last time, and the chances are that this time will be no different
Despite the whipsaw price action, absolute moves against the USD were modest for most G10 currencies
Volatile end to the trading week as confusion over US trade policy roiled markets. US dollar ended stronger. The S&P reversed initial gains to close lower
3rd Feb 25, 7:25am
Volatile end to the trading week as confusion over US trade policy roiled markets. US dollar ended stronger. The S&P reversed initial gains to close lower
US economy grew at a 2.3% in Q4 driven by strong consumer spending. Eurozone growth was flat in Q4. ECB cut rates and signalled more easing ahead. Gold prices reached an all time high
31st Jan 25, 7:45am
US economy grew at a 2.3% in Q4 driven by strong consumer spending. Eurozone growth was flat in Q4. ECB cut rates and signalled more easing ahead. Gold prices reached an all time high
Global asset markets in holding pattern ahead of the FOMC. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp. Australian Q4 CPI softer than expected increasing the chance for a RBA rate cut in February
30th Jan 25, 7:40am
Global asset markets in holding pattern ahead of the FOMC. Bank of Canada cuts rates by 25bp. Australian Q4 CPI softer than expected increasing the chance for a RBA rate cut in February
US technology stocks stabilised after significant downgrade. Safe haven bid for US treasuries fades with yields modestly higher across the curve. USD consolidates after tariffs threat gains
29th Jan 25, 7:52am
US technology stocks stabilised after significant downgrade. Safe haven bid for US treasuries fades with yields modestly higher across the curve. USD consolidates after tariffs threat gains
Sharp falls in US tech stocks amid concerns about valuations. Risk off tone brings safe haven demand for US treasuries. Defensive currencies outperform. China’s manufacturing and service sector PMIs weaker than expected
28th Jan 25, 7:51am
Sharp falls in US tech stocks amid concerns about valuations. Risk off tone brings safe haven demand for US treasuries. Defensive currencies outperform. China’s manufacturing and service sector PMIs weaker than expected
Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
27th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees an elevated chance the US Dollar's rise may be ending and a new down trend arriving. The NZD will then rise. But he is still looking for policies that improve productivity, so any rise is sustained
Trump says he'd rather not increase tariffs on China, adding to the sense that tariffs aren't an immediate threat to the economy/market. USD extends losses for the week; Soft US PMI services index adds to the downdraft
27th Jan 25, 7:26am
Trump says he'd rather not increase tariffs on China, adding to the sense that tariffs aren't an immediate threat to the economy/market. USD extends losses for the week; Soft US PMI services index adds to the downdraft
Trump calls for lower oil prices and lower interest rates, but these benchmarks move little. The NZD rises. Focus today on BoJ meeting where a rate hike is widely expected
24th Jan 25, 8:02am
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Trump calls for lower oil prices and lower interest rates, but these benchmarks move little. The NZD rises. Focus today on BoJ meeting where a rate hike is widely expected
US equities continue to power up towards a fresh record high, albeit led by the IT sector, with narrow gains and most sectors weaker. Trump continues to threaten import tariffs, but the actual path remains unclear
23rd Jan 25, 7:42am
US equities continue to power up towards a fresh record high, albeit led by the IT sector, with narrow gains and most sectors weaker. Trump continues to threaten import tariffs, but the actual path remains unclear
Trump "thinking" about a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico from 1 Feb; market "thinking" it probably won't happen as market jolt fades; CAD fully recovers from a 5-year low "Massive" announcement on infrastructure coming today
22nd Jan 25, 7:50am
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Trump "thinking" about a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico from 1 Feb; market "thinking" it probably won't happen as market jolt fades; CAD fully recovers from a 5-year low "Massive" announcement on infrastructure coming today
Trump inaugurated; his address outlined priorities. USD broadly weaker down around 1%; NZD up 1.3%. US markets closed for holiday, but equity and Treasury futures nudge higher
21st Jan 25, 7:37am
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Trump inaugurated; his address outlined priorities. USD broadly weaker down around 1%; NZD up 1.3%. US markets closed for holiday, but equity and Treasury futures nudge higher
Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
20th Jan 25, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the long USD speculative positioning on the Trump Trades has become extremely crowded and has lasted for longer than anticipated
Trump and President Xi talked on Friday night and "the call was a very good one". US equities ended last week on a strong note. Focus this week will be on Trump's executive orders post inauguration
20th Jan 25, 7:21am
Trump and President Xi talked on Friday night and "the call was a very good one". US equities ended last week on a strong note. Focus this week will be on Trump's executive orders post inauguration
US retail sales show a robust end to last year. Incoming US Treasury Secretary Bessent gives market-friendly comments. Japanese yen firms as market confident of a rate hike coming
17th Jan 25, 7:53am
US retail sales show a robust end to last year. Incoming US Treasury Secretary Bessent gives market-friendly comments. Japanese yen firms as market confident of a rate hike coming
US core CPI slightly weaker than markets expected. UK CPI data also softer than expected. BoJ hike next week remain live. NZ rates market continues cross-market underperformance, exacerbated by positioning; NZGB 10yr at a 7-month high
16th Jan 25, 7:46am
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US core CPI slightly weaker than markets expected. UK CPI data also softer than expected. BoJ hike next week remain live. NZ rates market continues cross-market underperformance, exacerbated by positioning; NZGB 10yr at a 7-month high
Limited market reaction to soft US PPI data as investors look ahead to the key CPI release this evening. Reports of a gradual approach to tariffs weighs on the US dollar.
15th Jan 25, 7:43am
Limited market reaction to soft US PPI data as investors look ahead to the key CPI release this evening. Reports of a gradual approach to tariffs weighs on the US dollar.
Global equities extend losses seen in the aftermath of the strong US labour market report. US treasury yields continued to move higher. Oil prices reached the highest level in five months
14th Jan 25, 7:35am
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Global equities extend losses seen in the aftermath of the strong US labour market report. US treasury yields continued to move higher. Oil prices reached the highest level in five months
Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
13th Jan 25, 8:27am
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Roger J Kerr says current financial market sentiment, positioning and commentary would not suggest that the US dollar is about to do an “about turn” and fall away over coming months
Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
6th Jan 25, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US Fed continuing to change its dot-plots in 2025. He also thinks most local analysts are missing the importance of our much better terms of trade
David Skilling says there is high potential for economic and geopolitical disruption in 2025. These ten developments in December provide a sense of what to expect
24th Dec 24, 12:00pm
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David Skilling says there is high potential for economic and geopolitical disruption in 2025. These ten developments in December provide a sense of what to expect
Five years after it finally failed, the liquidators of Cryptopia have started returning assets to valid accounts holders 'on-chain'
20th Dec 24, 10:53am
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Five years after it finally failed, the liquidators of Cryptopia have started returning assets to valid accounts holders 'on-chain'
Modest recovery in US equities after their slump following the Fed's hawkish rate cut. US 10-year rate rises to its highest level since the end of May; curve steepens
20th Dec 24, 7:59am
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Modest recovery in US equities after their slump following the Fed's hawkish rate cut. US 10-year rate rises to its highest level since the end of May; curve steepens
