OCR
Monthly rebalancing flows forced the US dollar index down -1% with economic data matching expectations. The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds reached the highest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2012
28th Nov 24, 7:47am
Monthly rebalancing flows forced the US dollar index down -1% with economic data matching expectations. The spread between French and German 10-year sovereign bonds reached the highest level since the Eurozone crisis in 2012
The Reserve Bank says it will likely cut the Official Cash Rate to 3.75% in February, if economic data plays out as expected
28th Nov 24, 5:00am
67
The Reserve Bank says it will likely cut the Official Cash Rate to 3.75% in February, if economic data plays out as expected
[updated]
Yes, the OCR was cut, and floating rates have gone down. But so have some fixed rates. We track the fixed rate changes here
27th Nov 24, 3:48pm
7
Yes, the OCR was cut, and floating rates have gone down. But so have some fixed rates. We track the fixed rate changes here
[updated]
The Reserve Bank cut rates as expected but surprised the markets with a relatively 'hawkish' view of any future reductions in the OCR
27th Nov 24, 2:09pm
170
The Reserve Bank cut rates as expected but surprised the markets with a relatively 'hawkish' view of any future reductions in the OCR
Markets digest President-elect Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of his term. US consumer confidence rose to the highest level since January
27th Nov 24, 7:49am
Markets digest President-elect Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of his term. US consumer confidence rose to the highest level since January
[updated]
ANZ NZ unveils some mortgage and term deposit rate cuts ahead of Wednesday's Official Cash Rate review
26th Nov 24, 5:26pm
71
ANZ NZ unveils some mortgage and term deposit rate cuts ahead of Wednesday's Official Cash Rate review
Bessent for US Treasury Secretary is taking the top of US interest rate risk post-election. Oil prices eased on prospect of a cease-fire agreement in Lebanon
26th Nov 24, 8:01am
Bessent for US Treasury Secretary is taking the top of US interest rate risk post-election. Oil prices eased on prospect of a cease-fire agreement in Lebanon
Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies while supporting the USD
25th Nov 24, 7:21am
Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies while supporting the USD
David Hargreaves says we should see another decent-sized cut to the Official Cash Rate in the coming week, but beyond that, all eyes will be on how the Reserve Bank sees things developing next year
24th Nov 24, 6:00am
88
David Hargreaves says we should see another decent-sized cut to the Official Cash Rate in the coming week, but beyond that, all eyes will be on how the Reserve Bank sees things developing next year
US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight. Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle
22nd Nov 24, 7:49am
1
US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight. Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle
US equities weaker, awaiting Nvidia's results. UST benchmark yields ignore rising Ukraine tensions
21st Nov 24, 7:40am
US equities weaker, awaiting Nvidia's results. UST benchmark yields ignore rising Ukraine tensions
Independent global economic researchers Capital Economics say despite their expectation the RBNZ will slash the OCR to just 2.25% in 2025 the housing market price recovery will be 'muted'
20th Nov 24, 8:45am
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Independent global economic researchers Capital Economics say despite their expectation the RBNZ will slash the OCR to just 2.25% in 2025 the housing market price recovery will be 'muted'
Risk-off & volatility were generated by geopolitical factors, but they quickly settled. US equities firmed, UST yields softened. Commodity currencies rose
20th Nov 24, 7:43am
Risk-off & volatility were generated by geopolitical factors, but they quickly settled. US equities firmed, UST yields softened. Commodity currencies rose
Latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for RBNZ finds households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.1% in a year and they're getting progressively less optimistic about their chances of finding new jobs
19th Nov 24, 3:35pm
27
Latest quarterly Household Expectations Survey for RBNZ finds households reckon the inflation rate will be 4.1% in a year and they're getting progressively less optimistic about their chances of finding new jobs
The USD is broadly weaker for a change, falling against most majors. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 58.4 USc before recovering. US equities in modest recovery after last week’s retreats
19th Nov 24, 7:21am
The USD is broadly weaker for a change, falling against most majors. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 58.4 USc before recovering. US equities in modest recovery after last week’s retreats
US stock indices ended last week under pressure. Comments from Powell that that there is no need to hurry to cut rates saw the odds of a 25bp rate cut in December fall. The yen rose on Japanese attention
18th Nov 24, 11:17am
US stock indices ended last week under pressure. Comments from Powell that that there is no need to hurry to cut rates saw the odds of a 25bp rate cut in December fall. The yen rose on Japanese attention
Trump trade reach exhaustion. US equities down modestly, and US Treasury yields fall, all despite stronger than expected US economic data
15th Nov 24, 7:41am
1
Trump trade reach exhaustion. US equities down modestly, and US Treasury yields fall, all despite stronger than expected US economic data
US CPI data matched expectations contributing to a relief rally in short dated US treasuries. The chance of a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC has increased to close to 80% according to market pricing
14th Nov 24, 7:43am
US CPI data matched expectations contributing to a relief rally in short dated US treasuries. The chance of a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC has increased to close to 80% according to market pricing
The uptrend in the US dollar has extended supported by a sharp move higher in US treasury yields. Chinese stocks and the yuan remained under pressure amid concerns over the size of its fiscal stimulus
13th Nov 24, 7:45am
The uptrend in the US dollar has extended supported by a sharp move higher in US treasury yields. Chinese stocks and the yuan remained under pressure amid concerns over the size of its fiscal stimulus
Economists see the Reserve Bank being wary on inflation and taking a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts next year
12th Nov 24, 10:05am
9
Economists see the Reserve Bank being wary on inflation and taking a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts next year
US equities remained well supported. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hit the highest level since 2021. The US dollar extended its uptrend. UST futures pricing implies modestly higher yields
12th Nov 24, 7:39am
US equities remained well supported. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hit the highest level since 2021. The US dollar extended its uptrend. UST futures pricing implies modestly higher yields
Influential RBNZ survey has perhaps surprisingly shown a small rise in the expectations of future inflation though most picks are still somewhere around the desired 2% level
11th Nov 24, 3:29pm
4
Influential RBNZ survey has perhaps surprisingly shown a small rise in the expectations of future inflation though most picks are still somewhere around the desired 2% level
Westpac economists say the change in US administration reinforces their expectations that the RBNZ's approach to monetary policy easing over the New Year will be more cautious
11th Nov 24, 11:46am
20
Westpac economists say the change in US administration reinforces their expectations that the RBNZ's approach to monetary policy easing over the New Year will be more cautious
US equity markets at new record highs as markets pared Fed rate cut expectations. The USD is broadly stronger. The NZD and AUD underperform as China’s policy package avoids stimulating consumer spending
11th Nov 24, 7:21am
US equity markets at new record highs as markets pared Fed rate cut expectations. The USD is broadly stronger. The NZD and AUD underperform as China’s policy package avoids stimulating consumer spending
Ahead of the Fed there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. Another cut by the Fed is certain, key will be the tone of the press conference
8th Nov 24, 7:53am
Ahead of the Fed there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. Another cut by the Fed is certain, key will be the tone of the press conference