About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
26th Aug 24, 8:42am
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Roger J Kerr says the US dollar has further to fall as the Fed commence the interest rate cutting cycle
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ claim of victory over inflation may be premature
Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
12th Aug 24, 8:33am
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Roger J Kerr believes the likely outcome of this week's Official Cash Rate review is that Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr 'will keep the markets guessing for a while longer'
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
5th Aug 24, 8:44am
Roger J Kerr says the full extent of the USD depreciation has not (yet) been reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
29th Jul 24, 8:46am
Roger J Kerr says the Yen carry-trade unwinding may have run its course, meaning expectation is the Kiwi and Australian dollars should stabilise and reverse back upwards over coming weeks
Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
22nd Jul 24, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says “the Donald” has delivered an unmistakable signal that, should he win the Presidency, weakening the value of the US dollar would be a priority policy
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
15th Jul 24, 7:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy path ahead is looking considerably more certain in the US than it is here
Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
8th Jul 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says historical adjustments to US jobs data are so large it makes a complete mockery of the efficacy and accuracy of the payrolls data as a reliable measure of employment trends in the US economy
Roger J Kerr says fears of US inflation increasing again are misplaced
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
24th Jun 24, 8:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has refused to orchestrate a higher NZ dollar currency value to force tradable inflation down to offset the non-tradeable inflation it has no control over
Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
17th Jun 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says Fed members with their individual quarterly 'dot-plot' interest rate forecasts have been as unpredictable, fickle, changeable and inconsistent as the interest rate and FX markets, in wildly adjusting their outlook
Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
10th Jun 24, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says to understand and interpret FX markets you must consistently monitor the sentiment, views and reasons as to why the traders, speculators and investors are increasing or decreasing their currency positions
Roger J Kerr sees the USD weakening from here after recent soft data. Markets expect the ECB to deliver their signaled rate cut this week. Eyes on the RBA, anticipating a harder line against inflation's extended pressure
3rd Jun 24, 8:00am
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Roger J Kerr sees the USD weakening from here after recent soft data. Markets expect the ECB to deliver their signaled rate cut this week. Eyes on the RBA, anticipating a harder line against inflation's extended pressure
Roger J Kerr is pleased the sticky inflation problem is getting acknowledged by the RBNZ. And he reviews where the US Fed is at in its assessments of inflation-control progress
27th May 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr is pleased the sticky inflation problem is getting acknowledged by the RBNZ. And he reviews where the US Fed is at in its assessments of inflation-control progress
Roger J Kerr says the constant stream of weaker economic outcomes in New Zealand has not resulted in a weaker NZ dollar over the last 12 months because NZ interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, relative to US interest rates
20th May 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the constant stream of weaker economic outcomes in New Zealand has not resulted in a weaker NZ dollar over the last 12 months because NZ interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer, relative to US interest rates
Roger J Kerr sees a favourable case for further appreciation of the NZ dollar to the mid-0.6000s over coming months on the back of lower US interest rates (weaker USD) and higher Australian interest rates (stronger AUD)
13th May 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr sees a favourable case for further appreciation of the NZ dollar to the mid-0.6000s over coming months on the back of lower US interest rates (weaker USD) and higher Australian interest rates (stronger AUD)
Roger J Kerr says American currency 'bulls' will again be reviewing their positions as unsustainable, adding to the general US dollar selling pressure
6th May 24, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says American currency 'bulls' will again be reviewing their positions as unsustainable, adding to the general US dollar selling pressure
Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen
29th Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen
Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
22nd Apr 24, 8:15am
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Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him
Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
15th Apr 24, 7:43am
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Roger J. Kerr sees another bout of US dollar strength as markets re-price Fed interest rate cuts. But will the higher US inflation continue?, he asks
Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
8th Apr 24, 9:18am
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Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data
1st Apr 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data
Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic
25th Mar 24, 8:17am
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Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic
Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
18th Mar 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
11th Mar 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks