About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
21st Aug 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
14th Aug 23, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
7th Aug 23, 8:54am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
31st Jul 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
24th Jul 23, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
17th Jul 23, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
10th Jul 23, 9:24am
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Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
3rd Jul 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
26th Jun 23, 9:14am
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Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
19th Jun 23, 8:40am
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Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
12th Jun 23, 8:38am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
5th Jun 23, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
29th May 23, 8:12am
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After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
22nd May 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar's latest set-back appears very temporary
Roger J Kerr says the only way we will attract in any foreign investment in to fund the current account deficit is to hold our interest rates substantially higher than US, European and Asian interest rates
8th May 23, 8:36am
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Roger J Kerr says the only way we will attract in any foreign investment in to fund the current account deficit is to hold our interest rates substantially higher than US, European and Asian interest rates
Roger J Kerr says the short-term actions of central banks, coupled with long-term 'de-dollarisation' are pointing towards continued depreciation of the US dollar
1st May 23, 8:01am
Roger J Kerr says the short-term actions of central banks, coupled with long-term 'de-dollarisation' are pointing towards continued depreciation of the US dollar
Roger J Kerr has some timely and pertinent questions (and answers) on the economic and foreign exchange outlook
24th Apr 23, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr has some timely and pertinent questions (and answers) on the economic and foreign exchange outlook
Roger J Kerr remains of the view that the US dollar currency value is 'primed for another significant leg downwards'
17th Apr 23, 8:04am
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Roger J Kerr remains of the view that the US dollar currency value is 'primed for another significant leg downwards'
Roger J Kerr notes that the NZD stays within its trading range despite the RBNZ's OCR surprise. And the “Fed vs the markets” battle of wills continues
10th Apr 23, 8:10am
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Roger J Kerr notes that the NZD stays within its trading range despite the RBNZ's OCR surprise. And the “Fed vs the markets” battle of wills continues
Roger J Kerr says if there was a high probability of a global economic recession over the next 12 months, a bellwether commodity price such as copper would be plummeting in value - but it is rising
3rd Apr 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says if there was a high probability of a global economic recession over the next 12 months, a bellwether commodity price such as copper would be plummeting in value - but it is rising
Roger J Kerr says the US Federal Reserve has adopted a measured middle path – and the net/net result is that it remains US dollar negative
27th Mar 23, 8:07am
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Roger J Kerr says the US Federal Reserve has adopted a measured middle path – and the net/net result is that it remains US dollar negative
Roger J Kerr says the AUD is poised to make gains from a recovering China, as well as the expected safe haven capital flows trying to avoid the banking sector issues in the US and Europe
20th Mar 23, 7:45am
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Roger J Kerr says the AUD is poised to make gains from a recovering China, as well as the expected safe haven capital flows trying to avoid the banking sector issues in the US and Europe
Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
13th Mar 23, 8:41am
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Roger J Kerr sees the American Fed decisions driven by employment & wage trends, deficit & debt ceiling issues, credit stress, and US rent trends. Fed hawkishness and USD strength has run its course, he says
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our wage-push and sticky inflation problem
6th Mar 23, 8:04am
Roger J Kerr says Australia will out-perform New Zealand in the GDP economic growth stakes this year, but the interest rate differential will remain in favour of NZ over coming months with our wage-push and sticky inflation problem