About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are still full of inflation problems, but offer no solutions
27th Feb 23, 7:48am
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Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank are still full of inflation problems, but offer no solutions
Roger J Kerr sees the Kiwi dollar rising against the American currency again over coming weeks and months; says NZ needs a net inflow of 60,000 migrants per year
20th Feb 23, 8:01am
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Roger J Kerr sees the Kiwi dollar rising against the American currency again over coming weeks and months; says NZ needs a net inflow of 60,000 migrants per year
Roger J Kerr has a look at the alternative strategies and tactics the RBNZ could adopt
13th Feb 23, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr has a look at the alternative strategies and tactics the RBNZ could adopt
Roger J Kerr says monetary tightening to bring down inflation always seems to require a higher exchange rate
6th Feb 23, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says monetary tightening to bring down inflation always seems to require a higher exchange rate
Roger J Kerr suggests four actions that could address our current inflation problem. He also is sanguine about how the US debt ceiling problem resolution. And he is highly critical of how the RBA is foreseeing its developing issues
30th Jan 23, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr suggests four actions that could address our current inflation problem. He also is sanguine about how the US debt ceiling problem resolution. And he is highly critical of how the RBA is foreseeing its developing issues
Roger J Kerr says the sentiment towards, and direction of, the US dollar currency value remains firmly negative
23rd Jan 23, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr says the sentiment towards, and direction of, the US dollar currency value remains firmly negative
Roger J Kerr says 'choppy and sideways' looks like the order of the day for the markets this year
16th Jan 23, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says 'choppy and sideways' looks like the order of the day for the markets this year
Roger J Kerr returns for 2023 with his views on currency movements and strategies. He notes it is rare or the NZD/USD rate to deviate from general USD movements. He also observes the NZD/AUD seems oversold
9th Jan 23, 8:50am
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Roger J Kerr returns for 2023 with his views on currency movements and strategies. He notes it is rare or the NZD/USD rate to deviate from general USD movements. He also observes the NZD/AUD seems oversold
Roger J Kerr wraps up the currency year from his perspective, and hands out his 'awards' with his politics on his sleeve
19th Dec 22, 8:00am
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Roger J Kerr wraps up the currency year from his perspective, and hands out his 'awards' with his politics on his sleeve
Roger J Kerr sees coming flows of capital back to Europe and this will force the value of the US dollar lower
12th Dec 22, 8:05am
Roger J Kerr sees coming flows of capital back to Europe and this will force the value of the US dollar lower
Roger J Kerr ponders on how New Zealand will get its economic mojo back
Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy 'penny-dropped' in both Wellington and New York for the RBNZ and US Federal Reserve respectively last week
28th Nov 22, 8:18am
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Roger J Kerr says the monetary policy 'penny-dropped' in both Wellington and New York for the RBNZ and US Federal Reserve respectively last week
Roger J Kerr says the implications of a different inflation/interest rate track for New Zealand is that the Kiwi dollar may well once again attract 'carry-trade' offshore investors
21st Nov 22, 8:44am
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Roger J Kerr says the implications of a different inflation/interest rate track for New Zealand is that the Kiwi dollar may well once again attract 'carry-trade' offshore investors
Roger J Kerr says, it needed a special catalyst to break the US dollar bulls and stimulate aggressive USD selling
14th Nov 22, 8:29am
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Roger J Kerr says, it needed a special catalyst to break the US dollar bulls and stimulate aggressive USD selling
Roger J Kerr says the next RBNZ monetary policy statement on 23 November will be a difficult one for our central bank
7th Nov 22, 8:22am
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Roger J Kerr says the next RBNZ monetary policy statement on 23 November will be a difficult one for our central bank
Roger J Kerr says the recent signs are encouraging for the Kiwi dollar to recover to back above 0.6000 against the USD as fast as it dived from 0.6000 to 0.5550 in mid to late September
31st Oct 22, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says the recent signs are encouraging for the Kiwi dollar to recover to back above 0.6000 against the USD as fast as it dived from 0.6000 to 0.5550 in mid to late September
Roger J Kerr sees “extreme and excessive” geopolitical, economic, and financial/investment market situations globally that make decision-making difficult for businesses, investors, and governments alike
24th Oct 22, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr sees “extreme and excessive” geopolitical, economic, and financial/investment market situations globally that make decision-making difficult for businesses, investors, and governments alike
Roger J Kerr says it would be a mistake for the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy just because core inflation is not reducing as fast as they would like
17th Oct 22, 8:05am
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Roger J Kerr says it would be a mistake for the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy just because core inflation is not reducing as fast as they would like
Roger J Kerr says a major financial collapse due to someone’s failure to meet cash margin calls on extreme leveraged positions in equities or bonds is the sort of risk event just waiting to happen
10th Oct 22, 8:55am
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Roger J Kerr says a major financial collapse due to someone’s failure to meet cash margin calls on extreme leveraged positions in equities or bonds is the sort of risk event just waiting to happen
Roger J Kerr says Kiwi dollar selling is typically very short-term and speculative in nature, often triggered by global events and economic shocks
3rd Oct 22, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says Kiwi dollar selling is typically very short-term and speculative in nature, often triggered by global events and economic shocks
Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
26th Sep 22, 9:22am
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Roger J Kerr explains the changed Fed stance, why the Japanese intervened in currency markets, why NZ monetary policy needs to be tighter, and why the NZD has fallen more than some peers
Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
19th Sep 22, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr points to evidence that rising interest rates have already 'smashed' the US housing market and inflation will soon follow sharply lower
Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
12th Sep 22, 8:41am
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Roger J Kerr questions whether the historical paradigm that the USD currency value has a reliable inverse price relationship with crude oil prices is broken
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
5th Sep 22, 8:40am
Roger J Kerr says until there is a change in direction to lower US bond yields and higher US equity markets, the NZD/USD exchange rate will struggle to make meaningful gains
Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself
29th Aug 22, 8:26am
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Roger J Kerr says given the much more stable food and energy prices, the US Fed’s inflation problem is already solving itself