Currencies
Market watching the clock, with fresh wave of US import tariffs tariffs due 4 March, US time. US ISM manufacturing survey disappoints. European equities stronger and rates higher on more defence spending in the region; European currencies outperform
4th Mar 25, 7:47am
Market watching the clock, with fresh wave of US import tariffs tariffs due 4 March, US time. US ISM manufacturing survey disappoints. European equities stronger and rates higher on more defence spending in the region; European currencies outperform
Roger J Kerr says markets quickly move on to the next economic development and the knee-jerk response to a non-economic shock or risk event is nearly always temporary
3rd Mar 25, 8:40am
Roger J Kerr says markets quickly move on to the next economic development and the knee-jerk response to a non-economic shock or risk event is nearly always temporary
The financial market has increased expectations for a US Fed easing. The 2-year treasury yields dipped below 4% for the first time since October, declining after soft consumption data
3rd Mar 25, 7:24am
The financial market has increased expectations for a US Fed easing. The 2-year treasury yields dipped below 4% for the first time since October, declining after soft consumption data
Trump to push ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% tariff to be imposed on Chinese imports. USD broadly stronger on that news; weaker yuan spills over into the NZD and AUD
28th Feb 25, 7:54am
Trump to push ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, an additional 10% tariff to be imposed on Chinese imports. USD broadly stronger on that news; weaker yuan spills over into the NZD and AUD
Trump pushed out the start date for Mexico and Canada tariffs to 2 April, says tariffs on products from the EU like autos and "other things" will be 25%. US equities recover after recent fall. US 10-year Treasury rate pushes down to a fresh 2025 low
27th Feb 25, 7:44am
Trump pushed out the start date for Mexico and Canada tariffs to 2 April, says tariffs on products from the EU like autos and "other things" will be 25%. US equities recover after recent fall. US 10-year Treasury rate pushes down to a fresh 2025 low
US equities down for a fourth consecutive day, US Treasury yields down for a fifth day, with the 10-year rate down 10bps and probing fresh 2025 lows, all on increased policy uncertainty. Safe haven currencies higher, commodity currencies underperform
26th Feb 25, 7:53am
US equities down for a fourth consecutive day, US Treasury yields down for a fifth day, with the 10-year rate down 10bps and probing fresh 2025 lows, all on increased policy uncertainty. Safe haven currencies higher, commodity currencies underperform
Markets await US tariff rollout. Euro initially stronger on German election result before handing back gains. Domestic NZ retail sales logs largest QoQ gain in three years
25th Feb 25, 7:44am
Markets await US tariff rollout. Euro initially stronger on German election result before handing back gains. Domestic NZ retail sales logs largest QoQ gain in three years
Initial gains for US equities fade after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index undershot expectations. 10-year treasury yields return to the bottom of the 2025 range at 4.39%
25th Feb 25, 7:38am
Initial gains for US equities fade after the Dallas Fed manufacturing index undershot expectations. 10-year treasury yields return to the bottom of the 2025 range at 4.39%
Roger J Kerr says many key US economic indicators are expected to print on the softer side as a result of financial pressures, as well as the Trump regime’s chainsaw attack on Federal Government institutions and jobs
24th Feb 25, 8:39am
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Roger J Kerr says many key US economic indicators are expected to print on the softer side as a result of financial pressures, as well as the Trump regime’s chainsaw attack on Federal Government institutions and jobs
Weak US services PMI contributed to a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in US equities. US treasury yields tumble. Brent crude prices drop 3% to near US$74 per barrel
24th Feb 25, 7:30am
Weak US services PMI contributed to a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in US equities. US treasury yields tumble. Brent crude prices drop 3% to near US$74 per barrel
Equity markets are weaker, retreating from recent record highs. UST yields slip. USD broadly weaker. Commodity currencies get a boost on trade deal talk. JPY outperforms as JGB yields rise to fresh highs
21st Feb 25, 7:49am
Equity markets are weaker, retreating from recent record highs. UST yields slip. USD broadly weaker. Commodity currencies get a boost on trade deal talk. JPY outperforms as JGB yields rise to fresh highs
RBNZ delivers as expected, 3rd straight 50-bps cut; terminal rate brought forward. UK CPI runs hotter than expected. USD pullback appears to have halted as market awaits next key directional catalyst
20th Feb 25, 7:53am
RBNZ delivers as expected, 3rd straight 50-bps cut; terminal rate brought forward. UK CPI runs hotter than expected. USD pullback appears to have halted as market awaits next key directional catalyst
European equities retraced from record high after hawkish comments by an ECB official. European bond yields move higher. Trade tensions stay in focus. Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports
20th Feb 25, 7:46am
European equities retraced from record high after hawkish comments by an ECB official. European bond yields move higher. Trade tensions stay in focus. Trump said he would impose tariffs on cars, semi-conductors and pharmaceutical imports
Weaker US homebuilder sentiment, an uplift in UK wage inflation, and an upward surprise in core Canadian CPI inflation. RBA kicks off easing cycle with 25bps cut. The cautious policy outlook was also not particularly surprising
19th Feb 25, 7:42am
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Weaker US homebuilder sentiment, an uplift in UK wage inflation, and an upward surprise in core Canadian CPI inflation. RBA kicks off easing cycle with 25bps cut. The cautious policy outlook was also not particularly surprising
European equities rise to a fresh record highs. President Xi meets with Chinese IT leaders, a strong signal of a turnaround from his crackdown on the sector. RBA widely expected to kick-start easing cycle later this afternoon
18th Feb 25, 7:19am
European equities rise to a fresh record highs. President Xi meets with Chinese IT leaders, a strong signal of a turnaround from his crackdown on the sector. RBA widely expected to kick-start easing cycle later this afternoon
Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
17th Feb 25, 8:57am
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Roger J Kerr says a series of softer economic data prints, similar to the retail sales numbers last week, will lead to a rapid shift in interest rate market pricing for Fed rate cuts this year
US retail sales significantly weaker than expected. This data contributed to lower US Treasury yields and weighed on the US dollar. NZD/USD traded back above 57 USc and to its highest level since December
17th Feb 25, 7:22am
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US retail sales significantly weaker than expected. This data contributed to lower US Treasury yields and weighed on the US dollar. NZD/USD traded back above 57 USc and to its highest level since December
Ukraine war negotiation talk supports risk sentiment. Higher than expected US PPI data but weak components that feed into PCE deflator; US Treasuries rally, reversing some of previous day's move
14th Feb 25, 7:44am
Ukraine war negotiation talk supports risk sentiment. Higher than expected US PPI data but weak components that feed into PCE deflator; US Treasuries rally, reversing some of previous day's move
Much stronger US CPI data drive US rates up; just one Fed rate cut this year now priced in. Stronger USD post CPI reverse course. NZD recovers
13th Feb 25, 7:50am
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Much stronger US CPI data drive US rates up; just one Fed rate cut this year now priced in. Stronger USD post CPI reverse course. NZD recovers
Powell reiterates the Fed in no hurry to cut interest rates in his semi-annual Senate Testimony. Little impact on market pricing for Fed policy. EU says it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it
12th Feb 25, 7:55am
Powell reiterates the Fed in no hurry to cut interest rates in his semi-annual Senate Testimony. Little impact on market pricing for Fed policy. EU says it will respond to any tariffs the US might impose on it
Global equity markets advanced in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Powell’s Congress testimony. Gold prices hit a record high above US$2900 per troy ounce
11th Feb 25, 9:13am
Global equity markets advanced in the absence of economic data or other catalysts. Investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Powell’s Congress testimony. Gold prices hit a record high above US$2900 per troy ounce
Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
10th Feb 25, 8:34am
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Roger J Kerr says there are a number of US economic data releases that have the potential to cause more USD selling than buying
Resilient US labour market data support the Fed's caution on further policy easing. US consumer inflation expectations rise to highest level since 2008. Fed easing expectations pared. US treasury yields higher supporting the USD
10th Feb 25, 7:32am
Resilient US labour market data support the Fed's caution on further policy easing. US consumer inflation expectations rise to highest level since 2008. Fed easing expectations pared. US treasury yields higher supporting the USD
Beyond the economic & political disruption in the US, David Skilling has identified ten recent developments around the world that provide insights on emerging global dynamics
8th Feb 25, 9:47am
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Beyond the economic & political disruption in the US, David Skilling has identified ten recent developments around the world that provide insights on emerging global dynamics
BoE cuts policy rate by 25bps to 4.5%. US 10-year rate up modestly overnight but down from NZ close pre-Waitangi Day. Treasury Secretary Bessent targets lower 10-year rate; US ISM services survey underwhelms
7th Feb 25, 7:47am
BoE cuts policy rate by 25bps to 4.5%. US 10-year rate up modestly overnight but down from NZ close pre-Waitangi Day. Treasury Secretary Bessent targets lower 10-year rate; US ISM services survey underwhelms
